Blackjack Win Rate Per 100 Hands
2021年2月27日Register here: http://gg.gg/ogwcx
*Blackjack Win Rate Per 100 Hands Drop
*Blackjack Win Rate Per 100 Hands Per
*Blackjack Win Rate Per 100 Hands Sanitizer
*Blackjack Win Rate Per 100 Hands HeldHow to Use Frequency Distributions to Determine Your Card Counting Win Rate and Fluctuations (An Excerpt from Beat the 6-Deck Game)
Learn how professional blackjack players can earn over $100,000 a year at the casinos. (2000 hours per year) to win $100,000. If you play 100 hands per hour. 6 bb/100 = $1.50 (6 x 25c) per 100 hands at each table. $1.50 per 100 hands x 4 tables = $6 per 400 hands. $6 x 0.85 = $5.10 an hour. (We play 85 hands an hour on average in short-handed games, so we multiply $6 by 0.85 to get our hourly winrate) $/hour = $5.10; Daily winrate example. You play 1 table of full ring $1/$2 NL Hold’em and have a. The first thing that I need to mention though is that Zoom poker win rates (measured in big blinds won per 100 hands played) are always going to be lower than the regular tables. And this is simply due to the way that the game is setup. In fast fold poker games like Zoom you cannot table select. By Arnold Snyder © 1983, 2005 Arnold Snyder
[Thanks to Sam Case for lots of help with the original 1987 edition of this report. And thanks to Radar for editorial assistance on the new edition.]TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword — Important What is a ’Frequency Distribution?’ Reading the Charts 50% Penetration 65% Penetration 75% Penetration 85% PenetrationTechnical Appendix Analyzing Betting Strategies Not in This Report Standard Deviation Playing Multiple Hands Accuracy Frequently Asked QuestionsFOREWORD — IMPORTANT This is a guidebook for serious blackjack players who are attempting to get the edge over the casinos. Its purpose is to help you work out your win rate, fluctuations, and optimal blackjack betting strategy in the six-deck game. I’m making some assumptions about the users of this book. 1) I assume you are familiar with the game of casino blackjack as it is played in most legitimate casinos. By this I mean that you understand the rules of the game sufficiently to play comfortably, correctly employing the available rule options. This is not a primer. 2) I assume you know basic strategy for the game you are playing. Basic strategy decisions for the various hands have been known for some fifty years now. Virtually all books on card counting—and there are dozens of legitimate card counting systems in publication—provide essentially the same basic strategy decisions. 3) I assume you are using a legitimate card counting system to obtain an advantage at the game. Such a system would provide you with plus and minus values to apply to the various cards, with instructions on how to vary your bet and alter your playing decisions according to your count. If you are not a card counter, the information in this book will be of little use to you. If you are a card counter, the information herein will help you maximize your profits in the games available to you. 4) I assume that you have an understanding of the most common rule options offered in U.S. casinos. There are, in fact, dozens of rule options used in various casinos, and most books on card counting explain the most common variations available. 5) I assume that the blackjack games you play in are traditional blackjack games. The information provided in this guide does not apply to ’Spanish 21,’ Superfun 21,’ single-deck blackjack where ’BJ Pays 6-to-5,’ Internet blackjack variations like ’Pontoon’ or ’Blackjack Switch,’ etc.
In fact, the information presented here will be of no use to those who play in web casinos, even in traditional blackjack games, because web casinos reshuffle the cards between every round of play, and the information in these pages is all based on deck ’penetration.’ This book deals with games in which at least 50% of the cards in play are being dealt out between reshuffles. In other words, I assume that the user of this guide is a knowledgeable card counter. I will not spend much ink within these pages explaining the basics. I will recommend my own book, Blackbelt in Blackjack, for any blackjack player who wants to employ a card counting system or use other professional methods of winning at blackjack, from the beginner level to the advanced professional player. The purpose of this book, Beat the 6-Deck Game, is to take a good card counter and turn him into a 6-deck expert. If you play in games with various numbers of decks, then I advise you to invest in the other reports in this series, which cover 1-deck, 2-deck, 4-deck, 6-deck and 8-deck games. The best way to comprehend the mathematics employed in this series is to read with a pocket calculator handy. Don’t be afraid to scribble in the margins with a pencil. All of the charts and numbers may appear forbidding at first glance, but the math is easy if you follow along. You will not have to perform any of the mathematics within these pages while you are playing at the tables. The purpose of this book is to give you a clear understanding of how the various conditions you will find in the casino will mathematically affect your potential for winning—and how you must alter your attack on a game in order to beat it. This is not done while playing. In fact, I have made every attempt to thoroughly analyze all of the most common attacks—and many uncommon attacks—on the various games, so that you will not have to do any math whatsoever if you prefer not to. I have tried to explain the charts clearly enough that you will be able to understand them at a glance. Please read the text carefully so that you can use the charts easily and accurately. What is a ’Frequency Distribution?’
Definition: As used in this book, a frequency distribution is a table of numbers that tells us how frequently any player (or house) advantage occurs in a casino blackjack game.
In blackjack, we can analyze a card counting system and figure out our win/loss rate by using a frequency distribution. We know that the count is continually going up and down, and that sometimes the house has the edge, sometimes the player.
But to know exactly how much I expect to win or lose in a specific game, using some specific betting spread based on my count, I need more details. What I need to know is how often the different house/player advantages occur. That is, what are the frequencies of player advantages of 1%, 2%, 3%, etc.? And what are the frequencies of house advantages of 1%, 2%, 3%, etc.? A player advantage of 2% over the house may occur 3 or more times per hundred hands, or only 3 times (or fewer!) per thousand hands, depending on the number of decks in play and how deeply into the deck(s) the game is dealt between reshuffles. The differences in advantage frequencies between a game with deep penetration and one with poor penetration make a HUGE difference to a card counter’s potential win rate.
In fact, many blackjack games are not beatable with any practical card counting strategy. And in many beatable games, your edge over the house is so small that the inevitable bankroll fluctuations will spell doom for the player with limited funds. These Beat the Deck guides will not teach you how to count cards. But they will teach you how to choose games that can be beaten. If I know how often the player advantages and disadvantages occur in a game, I can figure out how much of a betting spread I need to beat the game. I can also figure out how much I should bet at each specific count in order to get the highest win rate I can obtain. And I can use these frequencies to figure out a betting strategy for minimizing my bankroll fluctuations. There are two ways to draw up a frequency distribution. You can run a computer simulation of your system and then just look at the data the computer spits out. Or, you can use a mathematical formula for deriving the precise data you seek. There are arguments in favor of both methods. In this book, and in all of my Beat the Deck reports, I have used a combination of these two methods.
My goal in these reports is to provide data that can be used by all card counters, not just card counters using some specific count system. The advantages that occur in a casino blackjack game are about the same for all valid card counting systems. Some of the ’advanced’ systems can squeak out a bit more of an edge over the house, and some of the simpler systems are slightly weaker, but the actual differences are relatively small.
The information presented in these Beat the Deck reports is for an ’average’ card counting system. They will be highly accurate for a player using the Hi-Lo count from my book, Blackbelt in Blackjack. The more advanced Zen Count, also from Blackbelt in Blackjack, will be slightly stronger. The Red Seven Count (same book) will be slightly weaker; but the charts will be pretty accurate for all of these systems, as well as most other popular counting systems, especially in helping you to choose games and estimate the betting strategies needed to maximize both your profits and your chance of survival. Technically, we cannot answer the question, ’How frequently will a card counter have a 2% advantage over the house?’ unless we first specify five conditions:
*What are the rules of the game?What counting system is the player using?How many players are at the table?How many decks are in play?How many cards is the dealer dealing out prior to reshuffling?
For the sake of simplifying our analysis, we’re going to comment briefly on the first three conditions, so that we can concentrate on conditions #4 and #5, which are most important.#1: The Blackjack Rules
There are dozens of common rule variations in U.S. casinos. Each rule has some positive or negative effect on the basic strategy player’s expectation as well as the card counter’s potential win rate.
One factor that simplifies our analysis is that most casinos in the U.S. have settled on a set of rules that gives the house approximately a ½% advantage over the player. In other words, the player starts at a disadvantage of -0.5%. In fact, 90% of the traditional blackjack games in U.S. casinos have a house advantage between -0.4% and -0.6% off the top of the deck.
[Editor’s note: This has been changing in recent years, since the introduction of substandard payouts on naturals and the spread of such games. If you’re playing a game where blackjack get paid 6:5 or even money, you’re playing a game with a much higher house edge.]
Likewise, most rule variations have only a minor effect for a card counter who is helped (or hurt) by the rules’ limitations on his play. So, for the sake of simplicity, all of the frequency distribution charts in this book assume that the house has a ½% advantage over the player off the top of the deck. This is your standard Las Vegas 6-deck game, where the dealer stands on soft 17 and the player may double down on any two cards.
If the dealer his on soft 17, but the player may double down after splits, the starting advantage is about the same. With late surrender allowed and resplitting of aces, with the dealer stands on soft 17, the house edge is only about 0.3% off the top. If you find yourself playing in a 6-deck game where the rules are more or less favorable than -0.5% off the top, you may use these frequency distributions as they appear here, but remember to adjust your final expectation up or down accordingly.
It would be more accurate to develop a separate frequency distribution chart for each set of rules—but you would not find the final result to be far from the simplified method I am advising. Because 6-deck games with starting advantages very different from –½% are rare, we will not bother analyzing them in more detail.#2: The Card Counting System
Most valid card counting systems perform within one- to two-tenths of a percent of each other in computer simulations. So, instead of presenting the distribution to show how frequently each positive and negative ’true’ count will occur, I’m providing the data on how frequently each positive and negative advantage will occur.
It is, of course, necessary for you to know how your count relates to your advantage. If you use any of the counting systems from my book, Blackbelt in Blackjack, which adjust the running count according to the True Edge method, then your true edge count (minus the house advantage off the top) is your advantage. If you are using Stanford Wong’s Hi-Lo Count from his book, Professional Blackjack, then each true count (or count-per-deck) is equal to a 0.5% change in your advantage.
With a higher level count such as Wong’s Halves Count, Revere’s Point Count, or Uston’s APC, each count-per-deck is equal to (approximately) a 0.3% change in your advantage. If you are using a card counting system from a book that does not clearly explain the value of each point increase, then I would advise you to seek out a more advanced text. The system you are using may be valid, but if the author fails to provide you with a method for determining when you get an advantage, and how much of an advantage you get in percent as the count rises, then the book is just too elementary for a serious player.
With an unbalanced ’running count’ system, such as the simple Red Seven Count or Knock-Out Count, the values of each running count are constantly changing as the deck is depleted. In analyzing the Red 7 system with frequency distributions, it is important to note that your ’pivot’ will always reflect a 1% positive change from your starting advantage.
With simplified systems like these, you can use the charts in these Beat the Deck guides to compare the potential profitability of the games available to you, and to get a handle on how deep the penetration you will need, the betting spread required, etc. But to get really usable data on fluctuations, bankroll requirements, optimal betting strategies, etc., you will either need to use the True Edge method of running count adjustment, or switch to a balanced card counting system like the Hi-Lo Lite.#3: Other Players at the Blackjack Table
In six-deck games a frequency distribution will look different if one player is at the table than if more than one player is playing. Technically, you would need seven different frequency distributions to estimate your potential win rate in games where the number of players varies from one to seven.
The problem with drawing up ’accurate’ frequency distributions to cover all possible situations is that there are hundreds of possible situations and these situations are always in flux. You might have five players at the table, with 75% (4½ decks) dealt. The very next shoe you might have three players at the table, with closer to 80% (4¾ decks) penetration, etc. The next shoe, with six players at the table, a new dealer comes on who deals more slowly, cuts the penetration to about 72%, delivering fewer hands per hour. Imagine the possibilities, with anywhere from one to seven players at the table, varying penetration between shoes, and the idiosyncrasies of various dealers.
All of the distributions presented in this guidebook assume you are alone at the table. If you are not alone at the table, the distribution will still be fairly accurate, assuming you use all of the information available to you when making your betting and playing decisions. It will be slightly more advantageous for you to sit at third base, or as close to third base as possible, as this will allow you to play your hands with more information based on the hit cards of players who must play before you. As a rule, in all shoe games, when playing with other players at the table, always seek out situations in which you can see as many cards as possible prior to playing your hand.#4: The Number of Decks in Play
A frequency distribution for a six-deck game differs so widely from a frequency distribution for a four-deck game or an eight-deck game that it is necessary to draw up separate distributions based on the number of decks in play. Do not attempt to use the distributions in this guidebook to approximate your advantage in any game other than a 6-deck game. Separate guides are available from the publisher for one-deck, two-deck, four-deck, and eight-deck games.#5: Card Counting and Deck Penetration
Once you know how many decks are in play and the house advantage off the top afforded by the rules, the prime concern of the card counter is the deck penetration—i.e., how many cards are being dealt out prior to reshuffling. In a 6-deck game, if a dealer will not deal another round if more than three decks have been used, use the 50% penetration chart to analyze this game.
A six-deck game with less than three decks dealt out is generally a waste of time for card counters, so I have not bothered to analyze such games. Technically, if such a game had exceptionally good rules—such as double on any two cards, double after splits, dealer stands on soft 17, resplit aces and surrender—and/or if you could use a very large betting spread, say 1-to-25 units or more, then a 6-deck game with poor penetration might show slim profits for a card counter.
However, if you look at the pitiful returns on the typical 6-deck games with 50% dealt out, you can imagine what a waste of time it would be to attack a 6-deck game with lesser penetration. Most 6-deck games should be analyzed with the 65% (4 decks) and 75% (4½ decks) dealt charts. An 85% (5 decks) dealt game is way better than an average profit opportunity. Use the 85% chart only for dealers who deal down into the last deck prior to reshuffling. Remember, 85% of six decks is 265 cards. An 85%-penetration dealer would be one who would only shuffle when he had 47 or fewer cards undealt.
How often do you find a shoe dealer who would deal another round with less than a deck remaining in the shoe? Such dealers are extremely rare, but they do exist. Low stakes players are more likely to run into such situations. If you do find yourself in such a situation, use the 85% chart to analyze your possibilities.Reading the Frequency Distribution Charts
All of the frequency distribution charts are set up identically to the chart on the facing page.
The top line reads: 6 Decks, 75% Dealt, Bet Strategy = 1:2:4:8:16. This tells us that the chart applies to a 6-deck game in which 75% of the cards (4½ decks) are being dealt out between shuffles. ’Bet Strategy = 1:2:4:8:16’ would apply to a player who is spreading his bets from 1 to 2 to 4 to 8 to 16 units. This might be from $1 to $16, or $5 to $80, $10 to $160, etc. 6 Decks 75% DealtBet Strategy = 1:2:4:8:16Adv.HandsSys 1Sys 2Sys 3Sys 4Sys 5Sys 6Sys 7Sys 8-4.5%0.011111111-4.0%0.011111111-3.5%1.011111111-3.0%2.011111111-2.5%3.011111111-2.0%4.011111111-1.5%8.011111111-1.0%13.011111111-0.5%34.011111111+0.0%13.021111111+0.5%8.542111111+1.0%4.584211111+1.5%3.5168421111+2.0%2.01616842111+2.5%2.016161684211+3.0%1.0161616168421+3.5%0.51616161616842+4.0%0.016161616161684+4.5%0.0161616161616168+5.0%0.01616161616161616+6.0%0.01616161616161616+7.0%0.0
https://diarynote-jp.indered.space
*Blackjack Win Rate Per 100 Hands Drop
*Blackjack Win Rate Per 100 Hands Per
*Blackjack Win Rate Per 100 Hands Sanitizer
*Blackjack Win Rate Per 100 Hands HeldHow to Use Frequency Distributions to Determine Your Card Counting Win Rate and Fluctuations (An Excerpt from Beat the 6-Deck Game)
Learn how professional blackjack players can earn over $100,000 a year at the casinos. (2000 hours per year) to win $100,000. If you play 100 hands per hour. 6 bb/100 = $1.50 (6 x 25c) per 100 hands at each table. $1.50 per 100 hands x 4 tables = $6 per 400 hands. $6 x 0.85 = $5.10 an hour. (We play 85 hands an hour on average in short-handed games, so we multiply $6 by 0.85 to get our hourly winrate) $/hour = $5.10; Daily winrate example. You play 1 table of full ring $1/$2 NL Hold’em and have a. The first thing that I need to mention though is that Zoom poker win rates (measured in big blinds won per 100 hands played) are always going to be lower than the regular tables. And this is simply due to the way that the game is setup. In fast fold poker games like Zoom you cannot table select. By Arnold Snyder © 1983, 2005 Arnold Snyder
[Thanks to Sam Case for lots of help with the original 1987 edition of this report. And thanks to Radar for editorial assistance on the new edition.]TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword — Important What is a ’Frequency Distribution?’ Reading the Charts 50% Penetration 65% Penetration 75% Penetration 85% PenetrationTechnical Appendix Analyzing Betting Strategies Not in This Report Standard Deviation Playing Multiple Hands Accuracy Frequently Asked QuestionsFOREWORD — IMPORTANT This is a guidebook for serious blackjack players who are attempting to get the edge over the casinos. Its purpose is to help you work out your win rate, fluctuations, and optimal blackjack betting strategy in the six-deck game. I’m making some assumptions about the users of this book. 1) I assume you are familiar with the game of casino blackjack as it is played in most legitimate casinos. By this I mean that you understand the rules of the game sufficiently to play comfortably, correctly employing the available rule options. This is not a primer. 2) I assume you know basic strategy for the game you are playing. Basic strategy decisions for the various hands have been known for some fifty years now. Virtually all books on card counting—and there are dozens of legitimate card counting systems in publication—provide essentially the same basic strategy decisions. 3) I assume you are using a legitimate card counting system to obtain an advantage at the game. Such a system would provide you with plus and minus values to apply to the various cards, with instructions on how to vary your bet and alter your playing decisions according to your count. If you are not a card counter, the information in this book will be of little use to you. If you are a card counter, the information herein will help you maximize your profits in the games available to you. 4) I assume that you have an understanding of the most common rule options offered in U.S. casinos. There are, in fact, dozens of rule options used in various casinos, and most books on card counting explain the most common variations available. 5) I assume that the blackjack games you play in are traditional blackjack games. The information provided in this guide does not apply to ’Spanish 21,’ Superfun 21,’ single-deck blackjack where ’BJ Pays 6-to-5,’ Internet blackjack variations like ’Pontoon’ or ’Blackjack Switch,’ etc.
In fact, the information presented here will be of no use to those who play in web casinos, even in traditional blackjack games, because web casinos reshuffle the cards between every round of play, and the information in these pages is all based on deck ’penetration.’ This book deals with games in which at least 50% of the cards in play are being dealt out between reshuffles. In other words, I assume that the user of this guide is a knowledgeable card counter. I will not spend much ink within these pages explaining the basics. I will recommend my own book, Blackbelt in Blackjack, for any blackjack player who wants to employ a card counting system or use other professional methods of winning at blackjack, from the beginner level to the advanced professional player. The purpose of this book, Beat the 6-Deck Game, is to take a good card counter and turn him into a 6-deck expert. If you play in games with various numbers of decks, then I advise you to invest in the other reports in this series, which cover 1-deck, 2-deck, 4-deck, 6-deck and 8-deck games. The best way to comprehend the mathematics employed in this series is to read with a pocket calculator handy. Don’t be afraid to scribble in the margins with a pencil. All of the charts and numbers may appear forbidding at first glance, but the math is easy if you follow along. You will not have to perform any of the mathematics within these pages while you are playing at the tables. The purpose of this book is to give you a clear understanding of how the various conditions you will find in the casino will mathematically affect your potential for winning—and how you must alter your attack on a game in order to beat it. This is not done while playing. In fact, I have made every attempt to thoroughly analyze all of the most common attacks—and many uncommon attacks—on the various games, so that you will not have to do any math whatsoever if you prefer not to. I have tried to explain the charts clearly enough that you will be able to understand them at a glance. Please read the text carefully so that you can use the charts easily and accurately. What is a ’Frequency Distribution?’
Definition: As used in this book, a frequency distribution is a table of numbers that tells us how frequently any player (or house) advantage occurs in a casino blackjack game.
In blackjack, we can analyze a card counting system and figure out our win/loss rate by using a frequency distribution. We know that the count is continually going up and down, and that sometimes the house has the edge, sometimes the player.
But to know exactly how much I expect to win or lose in a specific game, using some specific betting spread based on my count, I need more details. What I need to know is how often the different house/player advantages occur. That is, what are the frequencies of player advantages of 1%, 2%, 3%, etc.? And what are the frequencies of house advantages of 1%, 2%, 3%, etc.? A player advantage of 2% over the house may occur 3 or more times per hundred hands, or only 3 times (or fewer!) per thousand hands, depending on the number of decks in play and how deeply into the deck(s) the game is dealt between reshuffles. The differences in advantage frequencies between a game with deep penetration and one with poor penetration make a HUGE difference to a card counter’s potential win rate.
In fact, many blackjack games are not beatable with any practical card counting strategy. And in many beatable games, your edge over the house is so small that the inevitable bankroll fluctuations will spell doom for the player with limited funds. These Beat the Deck guides will not teach you how to count cards. But they will teach you how to choose games that can be beaten. If I know how often the player advantages and disadvantages occur in a game, I can figure out how much of a betting spread I need to beat the game. I can also figure out how much I should bet at each specific count in order to get the highest win rate I can obtain. And I can use these frequencies to figure out a betting strategy for minimizing my bankroll fluctuations. There are two ways to draw up a frequency distribution. You can run a computer simulation of your system and then just look at the data the computer spits out. Or, you can use a mathematical formula for deriving the precise data you seek. There are arguments in favor of both methods. In this book, and in all of my Beat the Deck reports, I have used a combination of these two methods.
My goal in these reports is to provide data that can be used by all card counters, not just card counters using some specific count system. The advantages that occur in a casino blackjack game are about the same for all valid card counting systems. Some of the ’advanced’ systems can squeak out a bit more of an edge over the house, and some of the simpler systems are slightly weaker, but the actual differences are relatively small.
The information presented in these Beat the Deck reports is for an ’average’ card counting system. They will be highly accurate for a player using the Hi-Lo count from my book, Blackbelt in Blackjack. The more advanced Zen Count, also from Blackbelt in Blackjack, will be slightly stronger. The Red Seven Count (same book) will be slightly weaker; but the charts will be pretty accurate for all of these systems, as well as most other popular counting systems, especially in helping you to choose games and estimate the betting strategies needed to maximize both your profits and your chance of survival. Technically, we cannot answer the question, ’How frequently will a card counter have a 2% advantage over the house?’ unless we first specify five conditions:
*What are the rules of the game?What counting system is the player using?How many players are at the table?How many decks are in play?How many cards is the dealer dealing out prior to reshuffling?
For the sake of simplifying our analysis, we’re going to comment briefly on the first three conditions, so that we can concentrate on conditions #4 and #5, which are most important.#1: The Blackjack Rules
There are dozens of common rule variations in U.S. casinos. Each rule has some positive or negative effect on the basic strategy player’s expectation as well as the card counter’s potential win rate.
One factor that simplifies our analysis is that most casinos in the U.S. have settled on a set of rules that gives the house approximately a ½% advantage over the player. In other words, the player starts at a disadvantage of -0.5%. In fact, 90% of the traditional blackjack games in U.S. casinos have a house advantage between -0.4% and -0.6% off the top of the deck.
[Editor’s note: This has been changing in recent years, since the introduction of substandard payouts on naturals and the spread of such games. If you’re playing a game where blackjack get paid 6:5 or even money, you’re playing a game with a much higher house edge.]
Likewise, most rule variations have only a minor effect for a card counter who is helped (or hurt) by the rules’ limitations on his play. So, for the sake of simplicity, all of the frequency distribution charts in this book assume that the house has a ½% advantage over the player off the top of the deck. This is your standard Las Vegas 6-deck game, where the dealer stands on soft 17 and the player may double down on any two cards.
If the dealer his on soft 17, but the player may double down after splits, the starting advantage is about the same. With late surrender allowed and resplitting of aces, with the dealer stands on soft 17, the house edge is only about 0.3% off the top. If you find yourself playing in a 6-deck game where the rules are more or less favorable than -0.5% off the top, you may use these frequency distributions as they appear here, but remember to adjust your final expectation up or down accordingly.
It would be more accurate to develop a separate frequency distribution chart for each set of rules—but you would not find the final result to be far from the simplified method I am advising. Because 6-deck games with starting advantages very different from –½% are rare, we will not bother analyzing them in more detail.#2: The Card Counting System
Most valid card counting systems perform within one- to two-tenths of a percent of each other in computer simulations. So, instead of presenting the distribution to show how frequently each positive and negative ’true’ count will occur, I’m providing the data on how frequently each positive and negative advantage will occur.
It is, of course, necessary for you to know how your count relates to your advantage. If you use any of the counting systems from my book, Blackbelt in Blackjack, which adjust the running count according to the True Edge method, then your true edge count (minus the house advantage off the top) is your advantage. If you are using Stanford Wong’s Hi-Lo Count from his book, Professional Blackjack, then each true count (or count-per-deck) is equal to a 0.5% change in your advantage.
With a higher level count such as Wong’s Halves Count, Revere’s Point Count, or Uston’s APC, each count-per-deck is equal to (approximately) a 0.3% change in your advantage. If you are using a card counting system from a book that does not clearly explain the value of each point increase, then I would advise you to seek out a more advanced text. The system you are using may be valid, but if the author fails to provide you with a method for determining when you get an advantage, and how much of an advantage you get in percent as the count rises, then the book is just too elementary for a serious player.
With an unbalanced ’running count’ system, such as the simple Red Seven Count or Knock-Out Count, the values of each running count are constantly changing as the deck is depleted. In analyzing the Red 7 system with frequency distributions, it is important to note that your ’pivot’ will always reflect a 1% positive change from your starting advantage.
With simplified systems like these, you can use the charts in these Beat the Deck guides to compare the potential profitability of the games available to you, and to get a handle on how deep the penetration you will need, the betting spread required, etc. But to get really usable data on fluctuations, bankroll requirements, optimal betting strategies, etc., you will either need to use the True Edge method of running count adjustment, or switch to a balanced card counting system like the Hi-Lo Lite.#3: Other Players at the Blackjack Table
In six-deck games a frequency distribution will look different if one player is at the table than if more than one player is playing. Technically, you would need seven different frequency distributions to estimate your potential win rate in games where the number of players varies from one to seven.
The problem with drawing up ’accurate’ frequency distributions to cover all possible situations is that there are hundreds of possible situations and these situations are always in flux. You might have five players at the table, with 75% (4½ decks) dealt. The very next shoe you might have three players at the table, with closer to 80% (4¾ decks) penetration, etc. The next shoe, with six players at the table, a new dealer comes on who deals more slowly, cuts the penetration to about 72%, delivering fewer hands per hour. Imagine the possibilities, with anywhere from one to seven players at the table, varying penetration between shoes, and the idiosyncrasies of various dealers.
All of the distributions presented in this guidebook assume you are alone at the table. If you are not alone at the table, the distribution will still be fairly accurate, assuming you use all of the information available to you when making your betting and playing decisions. It will be slightly more advantageous for you to sit at third base, or as close to third base as possible, as this will allow you to play your hands with more information based on the hit cards of players who must play before you. As a rule, in all shoe games, when playing with other players at the table, always seek out situations in which you can see as many cards as possible prior to playing your hand.#4: The Number of Decks in Play
A frequency distribution for a six-deck game differs so widely from a frequency distribution for a four-deck game or an eight-deck game that it is necessary to draw up separate distributions based on the number of decks in play. Do not attempt to use the distributions in this guidebook to approximate your advantage in any game other than a 6-deck game. Separate guides are available from the publisher for one-deck, two-deck, four-deck, and eight-deck games.#5: Card Counting and Deck Penetration
Once you know how many decks are in play and the house advantage off the top afforded by the rules, the prime concern of the card counter is the deck penetration—i.e., how many cards are being dealt out prior to reshuffling. In a 6-deck game, if a dealer will not deal another round if more than three decks have been used, use the 50% penetration chart to analyze this game.
A six-deck game with less than three decks dealt out is generally a waste of time for card counters, so I have not bothered to analyze such games. Technically, if such a game had exceptionally good rules—such as double on any two cards, double after splits, dealer stands on soft 17, resplit aces and surrender—and/or if you could use a very large betting spread, say 1-to-25 units or more, then a 6-deck game with poor penetration might show slim profits for a card counter.
However, if you look at the pitiful returns on the typical 6-deck games with 50% dealt out, you can imagine what a waste of time it would be to attack a 6-deck game with lesser penetration. Most 6-deck games should be analyzed with the 65% (4 decks) and 75% (4½ decks) dealt charts. An 85% (5 decks) dealt game is way better than an average profit opportunity. Use the 85% chart only for dealers who deal down into the last deck prior to reshuffling. Remember, 85% of six decks is 265 cards. An 85%-penetration dealer would be one who would only shuffle when he had 47 or fewer cards undealt.
How often do you find a shoe dealer who would deal another round with less than a deck remaining in the shoe? Such dealers are extremely rare, but they do exist. Low stakes players are more likely to run into such situations. If you do find yourself in such a situation, use the 85% chart to analyze your possibilities.Reading the Frequency Distribution Charts
All of the frequency distribution charts are set up identically to the chart on the facing page.
The top line reads: 6 Decks, 75% Dealt, Bet Strategy = 1:2:4:8:16. This tells us that the chart applies to a 6-deck game in which 75% of the cards (4½ decks) are being dealt out between shuffles. ’Bet Strategy = 1:2:4:8:16’ would apply to a player who is spreading his bets from 1 to 2 to 4 to 8 to 16 units. This might be from $1 to $16, or $5 to $80, $10 to $160, etc. 6 Decks 75% DealtBet Strategy = 1:2:4:8:16Adv.HandsSys 1Sys 2Sys 3Sys 4Sys 5Sys 6Sys 7Sys 8-4.5%0.011111111-4.0%0.011111111-3.5%1.011111111-3.0%2.011111111-2.5%3.011111111-2.0%4.011111111-1.5%8.011111111-1.0%13.011111111-0.5%34.011111111+0.0%13.021111111+0.5%8.542111111+1.0%4.584211111+1.5%3.5168421111+2.0%2.01616842111+2.5%2.016161684211+3.0%1.0161616168421+3.5%0.51616161616842+4.0%0.016161616161684+4.5%0.0161616161616168+5.0%0.01616161616161616+6.0%0.01616161616161616+7.0%0.0
https://diarynote-jp.indered.space
コメント